Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.
2023/07/12 19:34:46
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Interesting article popped up on my feed with corroborated info suggesting the near still birth of Sigmar and the death throes of the Kirby era brought GW closer to the brink than I'd suggest even the most ardent black knights may have suspected.
Falling model sales between 2014 and 2016 put such strain on Games Workshop’s cashflow that it came within “four to six weeks” of “having to lock the doors”, according to former GW Senior Hobby Products designer Tom Hibberd. Hibberd makes the claim in a video interview with The Painting Phase YouTube channel, while explaining the development of innovative Warhammer 40k hobby products including the Contrast Paints line.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
'It is a source of constant consternation that my opponents cannot correlate their innate inferiority with their inevitable defeat. It would seem that stupidity is as eternal as war.'
- Nemesor Zahndrekh of the Sautekh Dynasty Overlord of the Crownworld of Gidrim
2023/07/12 19:45:59
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
So is he alleging GW management intentionally misinformed the shareholders as to the actual state of the company at the time? Because I remember people pulling GW's financial statements apart during that period and this supposed near death experience was nowhere to be seen back then.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/12 19:47:00
2023/07/12 19:46:17
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: Interesting article popped up on my feed with corroborated info suggesting the near still birth of Sigmar and the death throes of the Kirby era brought GW closer to the brink than I'd suggest even the most ardent black knights may have suspected.
Falling model sales between 2014 and 2016 put such strain on Games Workshop’s cashflow that it came within “four to six weeks” of “having to lock the doors”, according to former GW Senior Hobby Products designer Tom Hibberd. Hibberd makes the claim in a video interview with The Painting Phase YouTube channel, while explaining the development of innovative Warhammer 40k hobby products including the Contrast Paints line.
Ahoy! AHOY!!!!!
This is 2023 calling. From the present.
None of this is even remotely news. Or rumour.
GW as a company had of course had its ups and downs. There’s no denying that. Because rather helpfully, being a UK PLC they have to not only publish their financials, but subject them to impartial auditing.
You want to know what buries most PLC’s? Debts being called in. GW, as their own verified figures confirm, have always been debt adverse.
No of course I don’t want you to simply take my word for it. I’m just some spanker on the internets. But hey! Check this!
I'm not surprised. The Kirby years after the LotR bubble burst were all about making money by cutting costs and raising prices. And they were running out of costs to cut.
"Through the darkness of future past, the magician longs to see.
One chants out between two worlds: Fire, walk with me." - Twin Peaks
"You listen to me. While I will admit to a certain cynicism, the fact is that I am a naysayer and hatchetman in the fight against violence. I pride myself in taking a punch and I'll gladly take another because I choose to live my life in the company of Gandhi and King. My concerns are global. I reject absolutely revenge, aggression, and retaliation. The foundation of such a method... is love. I love you Sheriff Truman." - Twin Peaks
2023/07/12 19:48:20
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
As MDG says, the financials even around that time don't support the claim.
You know you're really doing something when you can make strangers hate you over the Internet. - Mauleed
Just remember folks. Panic. Panic all the time. It's the only way to survive, other than just being mindful, of course-but geez, that's so friggin' boring. - Aegis Grimm
Hallowed is the All Pie The Before Times: A Place That Celebrates The World That Was
2023/07/12 19:52:53
Subject: Re:GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Even if the financials didn’t support at the time?
Being pretty much, if not completely, debt free? GW would never have been “fOuR tO sIx WeEkS fRoM lOcKiNg TeH dOrS”, because that’s not how business and business lending works.
Fed up of Scalpers? But still want your Exclusives? Why not join us?
There's a story my old Business lecturer told me about an exercise set for some finance students in America.
They were tasked with examining a company's accounts and making a decision on whether they felt they were a sound risk to lend money to. Once the class had more or less unanimously agreed the company was safe to lend to, the lecturer revealed that the company had gone into administration the following day.
Moral of the story being that the numbers don't always tell the story.
Lol at a senior product designer for GW and Chris Peach being called a dubious source though, I knew you wouldn't let me down Grotsnik.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Being pretty much, if not completely, debt free? GW would never have been “fOuR tO sIx WeEkS fRoM lOcKiNg TeH dOrS”, because that’s not how business and business lending works.
I don't disagree, just stating that it's one person's statement that isn't back up by the years of verified evidence we have access to.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Azreal13 wrote: Moral of the story being that the numbers don't always tell the story.
Lol at a senior product designer for GW and Chris Peach being called a dubious source though, I knew you wouldn't let me down Grotsnik.
It's not just the numbers. We have evidence GW in those years took out a single debt(to pay dividends) and that was almost immediately paid back.That's not something a company "4-6 weeks from closing the doors" is able to do.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2023/07/12 19:58:00
You know you're really doing something when you can make strangers hate you over the Internet. - Mauleed
Just remember folks. Panic. Panic all the time. It's the only way to survive, other than just being mindful, of course-but geez, that's so friggin' boring. - Aegis Grimm
Hallowed is the All Pie The Before Times: A Place That Celebrates The World That Was
2023/07/12 19:59:00
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Platuan4th wrote: As MDG says, the financials even around that time don't support the claim.
For statements like 'four to six weeks to closing doors' you'd have to consider that almost all people have absolutely no frame of reference to judge these. Corporate payroll engineering and cash management is a domain for experts, and many companies rely on specific, revolving lines of credit to manage that because in aggregrate it's more convenient and economic to use these than other methods available. So, is four to six weeks (of what, precisely? Cash flow? Cash flow balance? Cash and cash-equivalent reserves on hand divided by daily cash outflow? and so on) high? Low? Industry standard? Exceptionally good? I have no idea, and neither has the average viewer. Even from inside management, if you have no specific insights into these departments and their models, numbers can look alarming but be fine, or on the other hand look ok and be the cause for a five-alarm fire.
2023/07/12 19:59:13
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: There's a story my old Business lecturer told me about an exercise set for some finance students in America.
They were tasked with examining a company's accounts and making a decision on whether they felt they were a sound risk to lend money to. Once the class had more or less unanimously agreed the company was safe to lend to, the lecturer revealed that the company had gone into administration the following day.
Moral of the story being that the numbers don't always tell the story.
Lol at a senior product designer for GW and Chris Peach being called a dubious source though, I knew you wouldn't let me down Grotsnik.
And I've been in multiple history classes over the years where we voted Hitler into power because he didn't drink or eat meat.
Sometimes students aren't the best people to make decisions.
2023/07/12 20:01:53
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
The obvious question to ask would be "how did they end up not running out of cashflow then?"
To which the answer probably was "well it wasn't as bad as all that".
Pretty clear 2014-16 was not a healthy time for GW - but equally, from the accounts, they were stagnating, not drowning. A short term cash crisis is however entirely possible if there were some lean months without much going on. I think they turned the corner with the Deathwatch Overkill box (Feb 2016?).
2023/07/12 20:02:17
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: There's a story my old Business lecturer told me about an exercise set for some finance students in America.
They were tasked with examining a company's accounts and making a decision on whether they felt they were a sound risk to lend money to. Once the class had more or less unanimously agreed the company was safe to lend to, the lecturer revealed that the company had gone into administration the following day.
Moral of the story being that the numbers don't always tell the story.
Lol at a senior product designer for GW and Chris Peach being called a dubious source though, I knew you wouldn't let me down Grotsnik.
And I've been in multiple history classes over the years where we voted Hitler into power because he didn't drink or eat meat.
Sometimes students aren't the best people to make decisions.
That really wasn't the takeaway I intended, but never mind.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/07/12 20:02:49
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Azreal13 wrote: There's a story my old Business lecturer told me about an exercise set for some finance students in America.
They were tasked with examining a company's accounts and making a decision on whether they felt they were a sound risk to lend money to. Once the class had more or less unanimously agreed the company was safe to lend to, the lecturer revealed that the company had gone into administration the following day.
Moral of the story being that the numbers don't always tell the story.
Lol at a senior product designer for GW and Chris Peach being called a dubious source though, I knew you wouldn't let me down Grotsnik.
Peachy relies on clicks to feed his kids, he's absolutely a dubious source.
2023/07/12 20:12:46
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
The words are there on the video, the specific quotes start at around 4.45.
It's also not him that says most of it.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Azreal13 wrote: There's a story my old Business lecturer told me about an exercise set for some finance students in America.
They were tasked with examining a company's accounts and making a decision on whether they felt they were a sound risk to lend money to. Once the class had more or less unanimously agreed the company was safe to lend to, the lecturer revealed that the company had gone into administration the following day.
Moral of the story being that the numbers don't always tell the story.
Lol at a senior product designer for GW and Chris Peach being called a dubious source though, I knew you wouldn't let me down Grotsnik.
Peachy relies on clicks to feed his kids, he's absolutely a dubious source.
I would not call anyone dubious per se, but it get's a bit repetitive to have an ex-GW insider on every couple of months to wash semi-dirty laundry from years and years ago. It does not give that much genuine insight beyond the common knowledge that company culture there was cultish, sometimes nonsensical and in general fethed-up during the Kirby era, and has a bit of a flair of spurned lovers bitching about their exes to a receptive audience. It probably is bringing in the clicks, but so is trash TV.
2023/07/12 20:16:40
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Why would the former Senior Product Designer say the things he said if they weren't true? He's a guest, it's not his channel, he's not there for clicks, I doubt he's been paid.
So why?
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2023/07/12 21:07:42
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
The simple explanation for this is that these guys were taken into a meeting & told by senior management that GW had 4-6 weeks cashflow remaining, and they needed to come up with ideas to save their jobs. Doesn't mean that 4-6 figure was actually true.
2023/07/12 20:20:05
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
That's not in the least bit simple. Its predicated on senior managers outright deceiving and manipulating other senior managers.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
xttz wrote:The simple explanation for this is that these guys were taken into a meeting & told by senior management that GW had 4-6 weeks cashflow remaining, and they needed to come up with ideas to save their jobs. Doesn't mean that 4-6 figure was actually true.
Azreal13 wrote:That's not in the least bit simple. Its predicated on senior managers outright deceiving and manipulating other senior managers.
What does a Product Designer have to do with daily cashflow and payroll figures? It's vastly more likely that he got this specific numbers either in a all-hands meeting, where it might have been couched in all sorts of relevant information and caveats that did not really stick to memory (something like 'At one point, our predicitions said we would be within 4-6 of having to close shop, but...' or whatever) or heard it through the grapevine while talking to colleagues from other branches of management or something like that. It would not have been directly in his area of supervision or field of work, so i think it might be more likely that he misunderstood, misheard or misremembered something than GW outright cooking the books for their mandatory reporting.
2023/07/12 20:32:19
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Azreal13 wrote: That's not in the least bit simple. Its predicated on senior managers outright deceiving and manipulating other senior managers.
I can entirely believe one set of executives would deceive another set of business executives, even in the same company. I'm not sure what world you've been living in to make you think they wouldn't.
Furthermore, it is predicated on the business executives running the company deceiving the manager of the creatives. I'd say it is senior managers deceiving middle managers.
I'd suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle, and that there was an internal fear about tanking, but not within such a short time frame, but that it became exaggerated at the time and moreso in the years since.
Though guards may sleep and ships may lay at anchor, our foes know full well that big guns never tire.
Everybody on the show actually worked for GW at some point, so it's actual inside info and not some outside internet guesses at the secret inner workings of the company. Clickbait titles are a deliberate running gag, usually something they joke about during the first few minutes of the show. They're also all FORMER employees, so they don't shy away from the aspects of working for GW that were crap or when they disagree with GW practices.
Y'all should actually WATCH the video, it's a 2 hour interview and the "4-6 weeks from failure" is really short part of it, most of the show is a bunch of insiders talking about the inner workings of how the different hobby tools and paints production and procurement went about. Why doesn't GW do dropper bottles? Why don't they do wet palletes? Why the Spray Gun but no airbrush? Why don't they make X, Y or Z? Tom lays it all out pretty well, it's unsurprisingly always money and target customer base, but it's nice to actually hear it laid out from smebody that was involved and not just a internet rando making a guess.
Watched it while painting the other night, I found it really fascinating
Kalamadea wrote: Everybody on the show actually worked for GW at some point, so it's actual inside info and not some outside internet guesses at the secret inner workings of the company. Clickbait titles are a deliberate running gag, usually something they joke about during the first few minutes of the show. They're also all FORMER employees, so they don't shy away from the aspects of working for GW that were crap or when they disagree with GW practices.
Y'all should actually WATCH the video, it's a 2 hour interview and the "4-6 weeks from failure" is really short part of it, most of the show is a bunch of insiders talking about the inner workings of how the different hobby tools and paints production and procurement went about. Why doesn't GW do dropper bottles? Why don't they do wet palletes? Why the Spray Gun but no airbrush? Why don't they make X, Y or Z? Tom lays it all out pretty well, it's unsurprisingly always money and target customer base, but it's nice to actually hear it laid out from smebody that was involved and not just a internet rando making a guess.
Watched it while painting the other night, I found it really fascinating
I watched it too, agreed that it was fascinating.
It's amazing to me how the information being shared here is being gakked on, especially when you consider the source.
2023/07/12 20:49:46
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
Kalamadea wrote: Watched it while painting the other night, I found it really fascinating
I tend to do the same.
The Painting Phase is a solid youtube channel. I particularly liked the episode about the who/what/why of killing WHFB.
"Sometimes the only victory possible is to keep your opponent from winning." - The Emperor, from The Outcast Dead.
"Tell your gods we are coming for them, and that their realms will burn as ours did." -Thostos Bladestorm
2023/07/12 20:58:20
Subject: GW "Doomsayers" may have been more right than you thought.
