Sooo.. UFOs

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**Ketara**

So the report is out. Some interesting extracts I've selected, reading through it:-

Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

Limited data and inconsistency in reporting are key challenges to evaluating UAP. No standardized reporting mechanism existed until the Navy established one in March 2019. The Air Force subsequently adopted that mechanism in November 2020, but it remains limited to USG reporting. The UAPTF regularly heard anecdotally during its research about other observations that occurred but which were never captured in formal or informal reporting by those observers. After carefully considering this information, the UAPTF focused on reports that involved UAP largely witnessed firsthand by military aviators and that were collected from systems we considered to be reliable. These reports describe incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021, with the majority coming in the last two years as the new reporting mechanism became better known to the military aviation community. We were able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others remain unexplained.

144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors.

But Some Potential Patterns Do Emerge. Although there was wide variability in the reports and the dataset is currently too limited to allow for detailed trend or pattern analysis, there was some clustering of UAP observations regarding shape, size, and, particularly, propulsion.... a Handful of UAP Appear to Demonstrate Advanced Technology. In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics. Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings...We are conducting further analysis to determine if breakthrough technologies were demonstrated.

We currently lack data to indicate any UAP are part of a foreign collection program or indicative of a major technological advancement by a potential adversary. We continue to monitor for evidence of such programs given the counter intelligence challenge they would pose, particularly as some UAP have been detected near military facilities or by aircraft carrying the USG’s most advanced sensor systems.

The UAPTF has begun to develop interagency analytical and processing workflows to ensure both collection and analysis will be well informed and coordinated.

The general impression I got from the report (everything is heavily caveated, but you can surmise from what they focus on) is that they they think that there is a high likelihood that UAPs/UFOs are a legitimate thing to be worried about. But they also seem (logically) to suspect it most likely as being down to somebody else getting a significant boost from a 'breakthrough technology' if anything. Much as we discussed earlier. A 'breakthrough technology' in this context being a step which redevelops scientific underpinnings significantly enough to enable the development of completely new capabilities/equipment.

If that is the case, it's probably the Russians. The Chinese are only just catching up in high-spec military aviation, and the Europeans have enjoyed being subsidised by the Americans for the last thirty years.

**BaronIveagh**

I have hard time believing that something like this wouldn't have leaked by this point if it's the Russians and something this advanced has come along.

China I could believe keeping it a secret, though I agree that they're unlikely to be the source.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

A Town Called Malus wrote:

This is why you do what Houdini and his wife did and you set up a secret code phrase to be used in any after death contact.
.

I actually read this as Hordini and was about to say 'I didn't know they were married'

**Ketara**

BaronIveagh wrote:
I have hard time believing that something like this wouldn't have leaked by this point if it's the Russians and something this advanced has come along.

China I could believe keeping it a secret, though I agree that they're unlikely to be the source.

It's unlikely to be India, and I doubt Israel would bother hanging out over the USA. Unless we're to believe it's the Japanese/South Koreans (which I doubt given their level of defence integration with the US), who else could it be? We know as a fact that the Chinese are still trying their best to crib carrier and stealth plane tips from the US.

Assuming we don't proffer little green men or time travellers as serious propositions, the process of elimination leaves the Russians.

**Azreal13**

Agreed. If there's any nation on earth with the resources and desire to do this, then it's the Russians.

Leaks apear to be surprisingly rare in the West, thinking back to the likes of the F117 and B2, and that's not even in a regime that has little conscience about defenestration from the 4th floor if one speaks out in a manner it doesn't like.

**Manchu**

Ketara wrote:
the process of elimination leaves the Russians.

Your line of reasoning doesn’t take into account that the process of elimination leaves two possibilities: the Russian Federation as well as the United States.

**Azreal13**

Well, essentially the process of elimination itself is flawed as I doubt many civilians have a true idea what countries are up to behind the scenes.

We're thinking it's a trillion dollar program, when maybe it's something more like Doc Brown turning a DeLorean into a time machine in his garage? Just one man who had a good idea. (This point is illustrative and not meant to be taken literally, FYI.)

**Manchu**

Certainly, there is always the possibility that these phenomena are not related to actions by any state at all.

But, assuming they are, per the current flow of this conversation, the source of this report does not eliminate the possibility that the US is nonetheless behind them.

**Grey Templar**

Manchu wrote:
Certainly, there is always the possibility that these phenomena are not related to actions by any state at all.

But, assuming they are, per the current flow of this conversation, the source of this report does not eliminate the possibility that the US is nonetheless behind them.

Indeed. I think the best guess is that they are a mega top secret project by someone in the US. Something that is still highly classified, and thus not included in this report and any knowledge of it being disavowed. Something so secret that the people who know aren't even allowed to say "We know what this is, its a secret" because even just admitting responsibility for it would jeopardize the program.

Its kinda like how Truman didn't know about the Manhattan Project till after he became President. The Vice President was kept in the dark about its existence till FDR died, which is kinda crazy.

**Ketara**

Manchu wrote:
Ketara wrote:
the process of elimination leaves the Russians.
Your line of reasoning doesn’t take into account that the process of elimination leaves two possibilities: the Russian Federation as well as the United States.

I was taking the report at face value which asserts it isn't the US. This is because the minute you question that supposed fact, you have to question every single other aspect of the report as well - including whether there were any sightings at all. It being a massive counter-intelligence operation by the US is probably more likely than the US having a secret UFO program, after all - with the intent of fooling other countries into wasting resources looking for them.

If we take the report at face value however (rather than any number of possible alternative conspiracy theories), the process of elimination leaves the Russians as the strongest candidates by far.

**Overread**

Another aspect we have to consider is that its not just a new type of flying technology but some form of projection or otherwise a kind of disruption.

If you can't make something fly that defies the laws of physics (as commonly currently understood) then you can also spook/distract people with things. Even if you don't have an aircraft in the sky, if you've something that appears really odd its going to distract opposing pilots and cause them to waste resources and time.

**Manchu**

Ketara, you can take the report at face value and still concede that the US might be behind the phenomena. The US federal government is not a monolith. The report may accurately reflect what its preparers do and do not know, but at the same time not reflect everything known by all American government and military officials.

**Overread**

Heck almost the entirety of X-Files is built on the whole idea of the US system having so many different segments that even at the top of some of the top segments you still don't have a clue what the others are doing even if they are doing insane stuff with aliens and crashed ships.

**Orlanth**

Some say its the Americans, though Americans don't have the technology. Viewpoint accepted.
Some say its the Russians, though Russians don't have the technology. Viewpoint accepted.
Some say its aliens. Viewpoint accepted.
But if you have a religious explanation. Viewpoint not accepted.

Demons are as good an explanation as Russians, Americans and aliens.

**A Town Called Malus**

Orlanth wrote:
Some say its the Americans, though Americans don't have the technology. Viewpoint accepted.
Some say its the Russians, though Russians don't have the technology. Viewpoint accepted.
Some say its aliens. Viewpoint accepted.
But if you have a religious explanation. Viewpoint not accepted.

Demons are as good an explanation as Russians, Americans and aliens.

There is evidence that Americans and Russians exist.

There is a high probability that aliens exist due to the vast size of the galaxy.

There is neither evidence or a high probability that demons exist or that out of all of the many, many religions that humans have created, Christianity is the one that is true. If a religion is true, you have pretty much an equal chance of it being any of them as they are all pretty much equally unlikely. So I guess these sightings were actually Hermes flying around delivering messages for the gods of Olympus.

And there is whatever religions that any alien species in the universe may follow. What makes your religion more likely to be true?

**kodos**

So the Pentagon Report left us with ~100 sightings since 2004 that fall under different categories like foreign projects, us or private projects, animals/garbage/natural and "other"

18 sightings were marked as "other"

**trexmeyer**

A Town Called Malus wrote:

And there is whatever religions that any alien species in the universe may follow. What makes your religion more likely to be true?

You're arguing with a Brit that believes in crap invented by fire-and-brimstone American Evangelicals in the 19th century. It's a lost cause.

**insaniak**

A quick reminder, folks, that discussion of religion is not allowed here. Please wind it back to the actual topic.

**BobtheInquisitor**

Edit: saw the warning after posting

**Cronch**

I've got a more pressing issue

Why are aliens so clearly obsessed with the USA and the UK?

**kodos**

because Russia and China don't talk about the secret technology they found

**Cronch**

And french people don't see ufos because of that?

**Flinty**

The Dutch and Belgians seem to be pretty keen on UFOs as well

That is an ace image, regardless of the veracity of the recorded data

**Mad Doc Grotsnik**

U.K./Europe could be explained by the Cold War, and the U.K. in particular being quite small with pretty dense centres of population, leaving far fewer areas where something wouldn’t be observed.

We should also probably take into account how popular sci fi is in those countries in terms of pop culture penetration.

Britain of course has Dr Who, which would have people more willing to report Flying Saucers.

Finally, as ever, remember, a report is the not the same as a confirmation.

**Cronch**

If one were more skeptical, one could say that the more a country is penetrated by US popculture, the more likely it is to have sightings of popculture phenomena like UFOs.
Sure, britain is more densly populated than France or germany, but it's not like those are deserts.Japan is even more densly populated but it seems far less bothered by UFOs despite being one of the main centers of technological advancement in the last 60 years.
And of course Russian AA must be even better than we think, the UFOs steer clear of that whole landmass!

**A Town Called Malus**

Especially when the UFO's interest in the USA isn't even limited to the continental USA. They are apparently very interested in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico as well.

Out of all of the small islands dotting the globe, the ones owned by the USA seem to be the only ones they have a definite interest in.

Funny that.

**kodos**

Cronch wrote:
And french people don't see ufos because of that?

because they are used to have strange looking airplanes from Germany flying over them

**Flinty**

kodos wrote:
Cronch wrote:
And french people don't see ufos because of that?

because they are used to have strange looking airplanes from Germany flying over them

I'm sure I'm missing online comedy/satire cues, but the Luftwaffe in recent history fly the same aircraft as the UK, Tornadoes and Typhoons and various Airbus utility aircraft.

**Overread**

I'm still reminded of when the USA sent some stealth bombers over to the UK for a bit and I saw them. Two of them flying a long distance off have a very strange profile to them. If you'd never really seen them before or heard of them (eg back when they were new) or just only saw a bit of them at a distance and they didn't fly over you could easily think of them as being unidentified.

The same could easily be said of any number of experimental or just abnormal aircraft designs.

But yeah I'd also say that the UK gets a lot of US TV shows and media so it likely has a direct influence on some segments of society in the same way. Though we can at least listen to War of the Worlds without mass panic

**Pacific**

Azreal13 wrote:
Agreed. If there's any nation on earth with the resources and desire to do this, then it's the Russians.
.

There was a report by someone from Janes (the defense analyst people) a few months ago that was saying there is a strong possibility that China has now overtaken Russia in some areas of avionics and cutting-edge fighter technology.

They're also spending vastly more money than Russia on their military, some $250 billion vs. $70 billion of Russia.

**kodos**

Flinty wrote:
kodos wrote:
Cronch wrote:
And french people don't see ufos because of that?

because they are used to have strange looking airplanes from Germany flying over them

I'm sure I'm missing online comedy/satire cues, but the Luftwaffe in recent history fly the same aircraft as the UK, Tornadoes and Typhoons and various Airbus utility aircraft.

joke here is that Germany does not have a lot of military aircraft that are able to fly

but there are a lot of experimental aircraft at the moment to get the next-gen fighter jet and climate friendly civilian aircraft