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chaos0xomega wrote:
The "operating at maximum capacity bit is a bit of an inaccuracy. Typical GW kits are shot out of injection molds at a rate of 2-5 seconds per copy. if they are using a 4-chamber system, thats 2-5 seconds per 4 copies. Keeping a set of molds in production for just an hour longer could produce an extra 720-7200 kits depending on the variables there.

Will that make a difference in terms of meeting demand? It might or might not, only GW really knows, but say an extra 4-5k war dogs in the wild may have filled demand for a few hundred more customers, and lord knows the demand is there.

Thing is it's not just wardogs missing.

So produce more those. Now even more kits are out of stock...

Gw isn't just sitting on laurels. They produce what they can. You produce more wardogs, that time is away from other kits being produced. You didn't gain kits to sell. You just made some kits run out of stock to get 1 kit on stock.

 kodos wrote:
I have not seen an argument yet why this is a problem for GW?
Did people stop buying or playing the games because certain units are not available?

Yes.

It creates barriers for new customers. And Gamer ADD is a real thing. Multiple times, being forced to wait to buy something has given me time to cool off on a project or just to think about how much I want something or not. It gives gamers time to see the meta change, rules change, editions change, and lose interest or become very cynical about GW. Not having stuff in stock has hurt or killed many companies that were near competing with GW. GW themselves use FOMO tactics as much as possible now, so why train customers to become used to Missing Out?

Because alternative is invest heavily into new factories etc taking gamble that demand is still same when they come online

Gw is risk averse which otoh meant they were in good position to ride covid over even if it had caused demand to drop.

 Waaagh_Gonads wrote:


Horus heresy is outselling AOS in parts of the world, so that would be another huge chunk.

.

Really? I wish that was in my area but then again, I primarily play AOS and HH. I lost interest in 40k with this edition and it's the first time I didn't buy the starter box for an edition. I'm just not a fan of the way the game plays at all. I have been having a lot of fun with AOS and HH though. Most of my HH fun has just been assembling an army and painting it up. I'm lucky that AOS is big in Orlando.

tneva82 wrote:
Because alternative is invest heavily into new factories etc taking gamble that demand is still same when they come online

Gw is risk averse which otoh meant they were in good position to ride covid over even if it had caused demand to drop.

Exactly, multiple firms expanded like crazy during the Pandemic only to suffer a huge shortfall right after. A really good example is the firm that were making exercise bikes with a built in TV screen/interactive screen. They sold like crazy during the first UK lockdowns and the firm invested heavily into more factories to cope with the rapid rise in demand. However by the time those factories came online the demand had tanked because by then we were in second lockdown and people were allowed outside to exercise. So they did and all the demand for exercise bikes vanished.

It's something also seen a bit in the tech industry where some websites grew big on the pandemic period and then have had to lay off staff because the demand vanished just as quickly as it came.

If anything whilst it could be leaving money on the table today; its not a daft move by GW to wait it out a little longer and let things settle as much as the ycan. The last thing they want is to spend millions on yet another new factory only to see that in 5 years time the market has shrunk back or not grown as rapidly and they end up not really needing the factory.

Of course GW have one big bonus in that they don't expand via loans so at least if they build it they own it outright. They aren't saddled with debts outside of upkeep for the factory.
On the other hand it means that GW are much slower to expand and are less likely to make rapid vast investments based on short term market changes.

 Overread wrote:

tneva82 wrote:
Because alternative is invest heavily into new factories etc taking gamble that demand is still same when they come online

Gw is risk averse which otoh meant they were in good position to ride covid over even if it had caused demand to drop.

Of course GW have one big bonus in that they don't expand via loans so at least if they build it they own it outright. They aren't saddled with debts outside of upkeep for the factory.
On the other hand it means that GW are much slower to expand and are less likely to make rapid vast investments based on short term market changes.

I do give credit to GW for that - they expand organically rather than borrow and rapidly expand. Sure it sucks when you can't produce as fast but unless their factory is running 24 hours per day, there is the option of running a second or third shift.

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

 kodos wrote:
I have not seen an argument yet why this is a problem for GW?
Did people stop buying or playing the games because certain units are not available?

Yes.
It creates barriers for new customers. And Gamer ADD is a real thing. Multiple times, being forced to wait to buy something has given me time to cool off on a project or just to think about how much I want something or not. It gives gamers time to see the meta change, rules change, editions change, and lose interest or become very cynical about GW. Not having stuff in stock has hurt or killed many companies that were near competing with GW. GW themselves use FOMO tactics as much as possible now, so why train customers to become used to Missing Out?

so you and your group stopped buying from GW and now play other games?
because if you still buy their models and play their games, a "maybe I would have spend more" is not a problem GW needs to solve

if people stop playing 40k and move to another game instead, this would be a problem but "maybe more sales" is not and it is not an argument to expand or going with higher risk

 kodos wrote:

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

 kodos wrote:
I have not seen an argument yet why this is a problem for GW?
Did people stop buying or playing the games because certain units are not available?

Yes.
It creates barriers for new customers. And Gamer ADD is a real thing. Multiple times, being forced to wait to buy something has given me time to cool off on a project or just to think about how much I want something or not. It gives gamers time to see the meta change, rules change, editions change, and lose interest or become very cynical about GW. Not having stuff in stock has hurt or killed many companies that were near competing with GW. GW themselves use FOMO tactics as much as possible now, so why train customers to become used to Missing Out?

so you and your group stopped buying from GW and now play other games?
because if you still buy their models and play their games, a "maybe I would have spend more" is not a problem GW needs to solve

if people stop playing 40k and move to another game instead, this would be a problem but "maybe more sales" is not and it is not an argument to expand or going with higher risk

I have not bought any GW minis in years. I almost bought some AI, but the minis I wanted were never in stock at the FLGS (and also FW resin for the Necrons—yechh). I also thought I would by Sisters of Battle, but the starter set was gone by the time I finally decided to get it, and then the box set was sold out when I finally got over the sticker shock enough to buy one. When the SOB were back in stock, I had moved on again.

I’m somewhat interested in some Tyranid minis I never got because they came out after I stopped buying GW, but if they’re not in stock during the brief window when I am excited for the specific product and willing to pay for it, then I’ll likely never buy them at all.

chaos0xomega wrote:
Under supply is just as bad, it's money you're leaving in the table and thats industrial inefficiency. Chronic undersuplly and extreme undersupply also drives customers away over the long term. There's a "sweet spot" you want to be in where you're fulfilling x% of the demand - ideally that x is 100%, but realistically you're shooting for like 95% or whatever your margin of error in your forecasts and risk tolerance is.

In the case of GWs particular industry, undersupply is also particularly bad when it prevents new players from entering the game. There's a growing number of core kits that are in short supply, these are fundamental building blocks for their respective armies. If you can't get the bare minimum you need to play, why play at all?

Leaving money on the table doesn't matter nearly as much as hitting your financials quarterly. Planning to sell X and then selling X is exactly what you need to do, even if Demand for it would allow you to sell X+.

However, you are not wrong that hitting the sweet spot is best. However, if you can't estimate that reliably, then go for selling out every time instead. The shareholders will stay off your back that way.

boyd wrote:

 Waaagh_Gonads wrote:


Horus heresy is outselling AOS in parts of the world, so that would be another huge chunk.

.

Really? I wish that was in my area but then again, I primarily play AOS and HH. I lost interest in 40k with this edition and it's the first time I didn't buy the starter box for an edition. I'm just not a fan of the way the game plays at all. I have been having a lot of fun with AOS and HH though. Most of my HH fun has just been assembling an army and painting it up. I'm lucky that AOS is big in Orlando.

Must be some very specific areas. Around here it's such a corpse the three stores that used to stock it all stopped supplying heresy stuff

 Waaagh_Gonads wrote:
Horus heresy is outselling AOS in parts of the world, so that would be another huge chunk.

How do we know that's true? I'm not saying I disagree or that you're wrong or anything, just how do we know? Because "is always sold out" doesn't necessarily mean "selling well". It could just mean they're not making as much HH stuff as they are AoS stuff.

 Geifer wrote:
Germany is a bad place to sell a bazaar. We don't haggle.

No joke, it was nearly at the point where I was going to ask my aunt to buy a couple of boxes and ship them over to me.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
No joke, it was nearly at the point where I was going to ask my aunt to buy a couple of boxes and ship them over to me.

know a guy from Germany who lives in NZ who sometimes travel back home to buy stuff or send orders to his family to pick them up on a visit
might be worth making an Southern Hemisphere buyers club

It's honestly a little refreshing to be disappointed in GW for something other than lousy rules and invalidating armies.

They definitely seem to continue to have things go out of stock, and seem to have doubled down on limited one-and-done boxes too.

I wonder how much longer they're gonna milk the pandemic excuse, they've been using that line for years now.

 kodos wrote:

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:

 kodos wrote:
I have not seen an argument yet why this is a problem for GW?
Did people stop buying or playing the games because certain units are not available?

Yes.
It creates barriers for new customers. And Gamer ADD is a real thing. Multiple times, being forced to wait to buy something has given me time to cool off on a project or just to think about how much I want something or not. It gives gamers time to see the meta change, rules change, editions change, and lose interest or become very cynical about GW. Not having stuff in stock has hurt or killed many companies that were near competing with GW. GW themselves use FOMO tactics as much as possible now, so why train customers to become used to Missing Out?

so you and your group stopped buying from GW and now play other games?
because if you still buy their models and play their games, a "maybe I would have spend more" is not a problem GW needs to solve

if people stop playing 40k and move to another game instead, this would be a problem but "maybe more sales" is not and it is not an argument to expand or going with higher risk

It’s a problem when people are leaving money unspent.

For instance, the latest Necromunda Rulebook. That sold out on release day, and I’m yet to get a copy. But the money I would’ve paid for that, wasn’t spent on another GW product. And I’m still yet to pick up a copy. This is because it’s currently only readily available from GW, and I’d prefer to get it from a discounter to save a few quid.

But, I did grab the new Heresy Battle Group yesterday as an impulse buy. Saw it on my FLGS’ shelf, at a decent discount (just under 20%) so I went for it. Not only is it a decent saving, but was a rare opportunity to avail myself of that Double Discount. I mean, the contents of the boxed set retail separately for around £170ish.

However….that’s my hobby budget for the month now, barring new Epic if it comes out. So whilst yes GW got an impulse sale out of me in the past few weeks? They still don’t have my money for Necromunda. My hobby budget doesn’t roll over month to month, it just gets spent elsewhere on other things.

Some might wonder “but Doc, you’re talking £40, that’s not megabucks”. And that is true. But, you need only rinse and repeat my situation over a few dozen folks, let alone a few hundred or couple of thousand? It does start adding up. And that’s on just one product.

Wayniac wrote:
They definitely seem to continue to have things go out of stock, and seem to have doubled down on limited one-and-done boxes too.

Is that true? When was the last time we saw a 2 player battle box? Its been a year at least, I think. They seem to have cut it back to just the faction launch boxes which are purpose built to not really be worth buying more than 1 copy of because so much of the value is tied up in a codex/battletome and models that you probably don't need multiples of. They're also doing those "Boarding Patrol" style boxes, which are often not that much different than a vanguard/combat patrol/start collecting box, and don't seem to be selling out as aggressively as boxes in the past did. In my view I think they've been cutting back on the one and dones.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Some might wonder “but Doc, you’re talking £40, that’s not megabucks”. And that is true. But, you need only rinse and repeat my situation over a few dozen folks, let alone a few hundred or couple of thousand? It does start adding up. And that’s on just one product.

if all those folks who cannot spend their 40, impulse buy something for 140, GW made more money from them without the need of further investment

so win-win for GW, no investment done, sold something to people who are grumpy of not getting X, no need to change something

Well, I think the point is more that they would have managed the impulse buys regardless, so the impulse purchase is not a net add to GW, and the situation is still a net loss becaue they are still losing out the 40 quid sales which are not being replaced by another purchase.

The degree to which some of the posters on here don't really seem to understand business finance is honestly frightening. A company doesn't grow at all by leaving money on the table and missing sales. It is not better, contrary to what most of you seem to believe, to sell out than it is to have a slight overstock. That slight overstock can be creatively shifted off the books or disposed of in a profitable manner, whereas completely selling out creates ill will with customers and also means you're not maximizing your potential sales.

And I don’t think “if they couldn’t spend it on X, they’d spend it on Y” is going to be universal.

Sure, a chunk of the customer base will do. But it’s not gonna be universal.

In my personal example, whilst I did do an impulse buy this month? That’s probably one I’d have made regardless - and GW still haven’t got the £40 from me for the Necromunda rulebook, as I’m holding out for a discounter to get it back in stock.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

chaos0xomega wrote:
Well, I think the point is more that they would have managed the impulse buys regardless, so the impulse purchase is not a net add to GW, and the situation is still a net loss becaue they are still losing out the 40 quid sales which are not being replaced by another purchase.

The degree to which some of the posters on here don't really seem to understand business finance is honestly frightening. A company doesn't grow at all by leaving money on the table and missing sales. It is not better, contrary to what most of you seem to believe, to sell out than it is to have a slight overstock. That slight overstock can be creatively shifted off the books or disposed of in a profitable manner, whereas completely selling out creates ill will with customers and also means you're not maximizing your potential sales.

Thought on the last point there? GW are the sole producer of their goods. They own the factories, and have to make some kind of call on what gets cast up. And how the finite manufacturing hours are best used.

In the current situation? It seems they are struggling to meet demand. And so, having overstock could also be argued to be a sign they’re wasting production time.

But we can of course only speculate, as we don’t really know what their setup actually is. We just have hearsay and anecdotes.

So thats the thing, you don't want warehouses worth of overstock obviously. But if you manufacture 100,000 units of something and end up with 500 leftover? You've done well for yourself. In GWs case, their goods are generally speaking not something with a finite shelf-life either. Those 500 leftover items will eventually sell out over time, particualarly as new customers come and go, the demand is always going to be there in some form. Its not like if they don't completely sell out of it on release there will never be any further demand for it.

But to sum up?

Stuff selling out is kind of a nice problem to have. But. It is a problem, especially with Scalpers.

For instance, on Friday Mattel Creations released Jack and Sally dolls for a collector’s line. My friend was hoping to get a set for his wife’s Christmas (she’s Nightmare and Doll daft). I was on the website for release. I had one in my cart. I was in the queue. Then? “Sorry sold out, sod off”.

And sure enough….now there are a great many on eBay for at least triple the price, because parasitic scalping scum.

And one has to ask…..why? Why not Make To Order? You get as much cash as people are willing to throw at you in exchange for a bit of patience from them. And you avoid ill will from having done sod all to prevent scalpers.

scalpers are again not a GW problem
they sold everything and of the 2nd hand market is selling above MSRP instead below MSRP just increases the value of the brand (GW models are worth paying more)

they just want to sell their stuff, who buys it does not matter (be it a retail store, a guy who is a happy painter, or someone who sells it to others, for GW they are all the same)

chaos0xomega wrote:
Well, I think the point is more that they would have managed the impulse buys regardless, so the impulse purchase is not a net add to GW, and the situation is still a net loss becaue they are still losing out the 40 quid sales which are not being replaced by another purchase.

yeah, but they are losing 40 on sales of a book, which are external cost with high shipping costs if done in China (so only worth if done in bulk), or high printing cost in Europe (only worth if it is really needed)

a Necromunda rulebook that is obsolete within months anyway, why should they invest the high cost in printing it of the only reaction from the disappointed customer is "bought GW plastic minis instead"

it is a bad situation for the customer, but not something were GW would think that they need to change something or instead of waiting for the next print run in China to order some emergency prints in the UK

Scalpers are a GW problem though.

With limited run stuff, including books? You must take steps to stop scalpers hoarding them. To not do so only breeds ill will and frustration in your wider customer base.

The Loot Group and others like it of course help with that somewhat. But only really make an impact on Anniversary models and stuff like the reprints sold at Warhammer World

Look at Indomitus for instance. That cheered my heart when, after the scalpers thought they were on a gold mine? GW did a Made To Order run, hitting scalpers in the only place that matters, their wallet. Stiff them by removing exclusivity, after they’ve hoarded. They’re then left with stock they’ll struggle to resell at cost, let alone with a profit margin.

Yeah Scalpers are a GW problem too.

If a product costs X and sells out majority to scalpers who raise it to X+50 which then sells that means GW customers who would have spent X+50 on GW brand items are not spending that +50 with GW.

GW is getting the X from the original sale to the scalper, but the fans +50 that would likely have gone to GW on something else, is now sitting in the scalpers pocket.


It also generates a lot of bad reputation between GW and their customers if scalpers are, or are seen too, secure majority stock of limited sale items.
GW wants customers getting too experiences, not scalpers profiting.


The Pandemic really made this a huge issue for a good many firms, not just GW.

yeah, this something that customers care about but why should GW
if a box sits in your basement and will never get painted, or with a scalper who never going to sell it, or with a scalper who sells it to a higher price to a person who is never going to paint it

it is always sold and the outcome is the same
and people who get angry, are getting angry at the 2nd hand market, not at GW (as your wording shows)
while at the same time, a high prices 2nd hand market makes the already ridiculous price GW ask for look better


so unless any of this makes people stop buying any GW product and stop playing any of the GW games, GW lost nothing
and as long as more new people start than people who do stop because of this drop out, GW sees a growth in sales

so again, why should they change if they sell more at a higher price and still more people starting than stopping
there is no need to change for a "maybe some more books sold"

PS: and GWs solution to the "losing money to scalpers" is simply to increase the prices
if people are willing to pay X+50, GW now chargers X+50 for the next release, so the money goes to GW
they are not overthinking any of this in complicated market situations, they want to sell everything at once at the maximum price, everything else does not matter to them

No. GW generates ill will when they don’t restrict Copies Per Customer, and don’t double check for multiple orders made with the same card across different accounts, and/or being sent to the same delivery address.

You’re never going to eradicate scalpers, but companies can and should so much more to limit their shenanigans.

because otherwise people stop buying and playing the products and the game will be dead

yeah, not going to happen

there is literally no consequence for GW if they don't do anything against scalping except generating more sales because of FOMO

 kodos wrote:

PS: and GWs solution to the "losing money to scalpers" is simply to increase the prices
if people are willing to pay X+50, GW now chargers X+50 for the next release, so the money goes to GW
they are not overthinking any of this in complicated market situations, they want to sell everything at once at the maximum price, everything else does not matter to them

That makes no sense at all.

The scalper is adding the +50 to GW's asking price of X. It doesn't matter what X is, if GW increases X to compensate then the scalper still buys it at X and adds the +50.

GW raising prices has nothing what so ever to do with tackling scalpers in the least.

Wayniac wrote:
They definitely seem to continue to have things go out of stock, and seem to have doubled down on limited one-and-done boxes too.

I wonder how much longer they're gonna milk the pandemic excuse, they've been using that line for years now.

Does it matter? Will hearing a different excuse make you less annoyed that xyz is Out Of Stock?

 Overread wrote:

GW raising prices has nothing what so ever to do with tackling scalpers in the least.

not what I meant
scalpers show GW what people are willing to pay for a product, so GW does not need to guess or test but can use that prices as a guide (and there is a limit people are willing to pay) and scalpers make sure that the higher prices are paid because still cheaper to buy from GW (fomo, not just the fear of not getting the product at all, but also that it will never be as cheap as on release)

to tackle scalpers, GW would first need to see them as a bigger problem